The Darren Bent saga will surely go down as the biggest shock of this transfer window. But the effects of his departure will surely effect the club he is departing more so than that of Aston Villa. His sudden move, combined with a host of other factors, could cause a halt to the current progress being made at Sunderland.
The Black Cats have become a decent side this season. For my money, Steve Bruce is a fine manager who has helped the team go from a side ensconced in the relegation battle, to a mid-table team last year, to a legitimately dangerous side in 2010-11 with serious intentions of qualifying for the Europa League.
What has to make Bent's loss even more frustrating is that the team was just beginning to play their best football. They've slowly come into their own over the last few months. The 3-0 win at Chelsea served as a coming out party for the youthful tandem of Danny Welbeck and Asamoah Gyan. That win was their first away from home in over a year, and they appeared to be getting things together away from the Stadium of Light by stealing a few more points in enemy territory.
They were undefeated in their last three before the loss of Bent. And while fellow Europa League hopefuls Bolton have been struggling, the Black Cats appeared to be on the ascendency.
All of that optimism may have just vanished in the blink of an eye. Not only did they lose a proven goal-scorer in Bent, but they'll also be without promising front man Danny Welbeck. He's out for eight weeks after suffering knee damage.
That leaves Gyan as the only fit striker on the first team at present. And Bruce has less than ten days to find a replacement for Bent.
This could be a pivotal moment not just in Sunderland's season, but also for the club overall. We've seen many a mid-table team flirt with Europe before. Portsmouth were in that category years ago and we all know what happened with them, Fulham made it all the way to the Europe League Final last season before losing Hodgson to Liverpool (now they fight against relegation), and Birmingham gave you the idea that they might give it a go this season, yet they are also battling the drop after failing to sign a host of key players they were linked with (Camaranesi before the year, and most recently Robbie Keane).
As you can see, plenty have gotten as far as Bruce has with the Black Cats. But an inability to hold onto or buy key cogs has doomed most of them (not that it's an impossible task as Tottenham has shown).
Now the question is whether Bruce's boys will head down that same road back to mediocrity.
A bid to Europe would have given them enough financial flexibility to continue their trend upwards. Hell, they could have added to the transfer kitty by selling Bent anyways in the summer and had more than enough time and money to find a replacement.
Instead, the selling of Bent and subsequent injury to Welbeck leaves them in dire straights. They've lost their veteran goal-scorer, and now are relying on Gyan in his first EPL season to carry them the rest of the way when it comes to scoring goals. I don't see that happening.
If Gyan doesn't step up and an adequate replacement for Bent is not found, we could see Sunderland drop out of the Europa spots (of course much of that depends on who wins the FA/Carling Cups), and maybe even finish the season in the bottom half of the table.
If that happens, it could be the beginning of the end for Bruce, who worked so hard to build the team up over the past two seasons. And if you look at what happened to Portsmouth and potentially Fulham/Birmingham, this might be a turning point for the club that sees them go from upstart challengers back to relegation strugglers.
We'll have to wait and see what happens. After all, Bruce will have plenty of money at his disposal this summer after the Bent deal. But if his team aren't playing in Europe, it will be hard to attract another goal-scorer of Bent's quality to the club. And that could spell doom for the Black Cats over the remainder of this and upcoming seasons.
They'll be okay. Not this season but in the long run they'll be okay. The biggest mistake Sunderland could make right now would be to assume that this season matters more than their long term future, and spend over the top to bring in a striker. So maybe they don't qualify for the Europa league this season. They take their time over the summer, get a good replacement striker for a good price, and, assuming Gyan and Welbeck ontinue to improve, they begin next season with a good strikeforce. They'll miss out on Europa league money, but that's not make or break money.
ReplyDeleteI think the histories of clubs like Portsmouth, Leeds United, West Ham, and even Aston Villa and Everton, have shown us the danger of a club trying to accomplish too much too fast. Mid-table obscurity is not a great place to be if you have ambitions of being in the Europa but it beats being involved in a relegation battle, and as a club that was in the championship not too long ago, Sunderland knows something about relegation battles. If they don't make the Europa this year, as long as the team continues to develop and improve, it's not the end of the world, they will get there one day. But if they panic and overspend, or sack Bruce in a panic, they may go the way of clubs like Middlesborough, or Portsmouth, and spend one season in the Europa only to get relegated the next.
Agree with most of what you said David. But remember that Welbeck is on loan from Man U and they have indicated that they would be very reluctant to sell him. So S'land will have to spend some $$$ on a striker at some point, although the most prudent thing to do would be to wait until the summer to make that move.
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