Title Up for Grabs
If you're a football fan, this is what you live for. With three weeks to go in the 2010/11 English Premier League season, the title is completely up for grabs.
Nearly a month ago, Chelsea's season looked done and dusted. Manchester United had sent them packing in the Champions League, and meanwhile, they sat eight points adrift of United atop the Premier League table. In fact, it looked that Arsenal was United's main challenger. But both teams in front of Chelsea faltered, and now the Blues trail Man U by just three points with three matches left, and a crucial matchup upcoming between Carlo Ancellotti's Blues and Sir Alex Ferguson's Red Devils this Sunday.
Although Chelsea were surely happy to see the Gunners falter down the stretch (allowing them to surpass their North London rivals for second), they were 100% behind Arsene Wenger and company during their Sunday matchup with United, as three dropped points for Fergie's boys meant they suddenly controlled their destiny in the title race. Thanks to a fantastic defensive performance from the Gunners, accompanied by some lovely spells of possession, and one clinical finish from Aaron Ramsey, the title race is officially on.
Ramsey's winner came in the 56th minute, as he raced onto a pass from Robin Van Persie and finished brilliantly with his right foot, sneaking the ball past Edwin van der Sar and into the left corner. In a match devoid of chances, Ramsey's well taken goal was an example of a side of Arsenal that we haven't seen in recent weeks, as they clamped down defensively (five goals given up in their last two matches), and were actually clinical in front of goal when their big chance came (most certainly not their forte), to gain the victory.
Maybe it was because United are tiring down the stretch, or perhaps Arsenal were able to flourish with their title chances all but gone and the pressure off of them. Either way, the Gunners have made a huge mark in this year's title race, even though they won't be winning a trophy for the sixth straight season.
As for United, they are beginning to look a weary bunch down the stretch. Look, this is far from Sir Alex Ferguson's best team (a legitimate case can be made that this would be his best managerial job ever should Man U win silverware), and while their toughness and swagger cannot be questioned, they do lack a bit of individual ability to get them over the top at times.
Aside from Wayne Rooney and Nani (and to some extent Antonio Valencia, but he is not quite back 100% yet), United lacks players with the creative qualities to make opportunities by their lonesome. And while their tactics, discipline, and defense are typically spot on, they still struggle to score at times when they are in need of a bit of inspiration.
The Case for Chelsea
Guus Hiddink, one of the games great current managers who had a brief and successful stint at Chelsea, always stresses that football is about "reacting" to the match being played, that the real mark of a world class side is that they can alter their style mid-game (reacting). And although only a win and nothing else will do for the Blues this Sunday, I would say that they are the more likely to nab the three points, as their propensity to "react" to the type of match they are faced with by successfully playing a variety of footballing styles, gives them a crucial advantage over Man U (but then again, I'm just another jaded Arsenal fan that might vomit at the mere idea of Fergie holding up the trophy when it was ours for the taking all year long).
It's rare that we get to see a match like this late in the season with everything on the line. But the result will indeed go to which ever team follows Hiddink's advice, and "reacts" most quickly to the type of match being played. In my opinion, that is something that best suits Chelsea, as their ability to play an ugly, prodding, grind-it-out style, or the aesthetically pleasing, pulsating and fast paced style that fans love, gives them the clear edge over United.
When evaluating Chelsea's versatility, we must first realize they are blessed with a host of players that can beat you with their physicality or creativity (while United's players tend to excel in one or the other). Chelsea, for my money, are actually the EPL's most complete team on personnel alone.
Like United, Chelsea have the big, physically gifted players in the center of the park with the likes of sizable center midfielders Michael Essien (although injuries have clearly altered his career, but that's a discussion for another day) John Obi Mikel and the firey and occasionally brilliant Ramires, plus one of the top center back pairings in the world in John Terry, David Luiz.
If we see that grind-it-out 90 minutes of football, United has no problem matching up with Chelsea (and they may be one of the few sides in the world that can do that). Nemanja Vidic and Rio Ferndinand are right there with Luiz/Terry (although not the same offensive contribution, for what it's worth), and there's a wide selection of physical midfielders that don't make many mistakes with the likes of Gibson/Scholes/Carrick at Ferguson's disposal. Add in the fact that a point suits them just fine, and this is clearly the way they'll want the match to go.
However, while both teams have their fair share of physicality and discipline (two of the most important traits in winning a league like the EPL), Chelsea has a clear edge when it comes to creativity and skill (that is, the ability to create a goal out of nothing with a little bit of individual brilliance). When you stack up the two sides, this is where Chelsea has the advantage. Frank Lampard is getting back to his best as one of the world's most influential attacking midfielders, Didier Drogba is starting to pester defenders like last season and is finishing his chances, and wide midfielder Florent Malouda scored an absolute scorcher last weekend and can create problems for even the world's best right backs.
But don't forget, even the Blues' disciplined, hard nosed, defensive players are valuable on the attack, as Ramires can make defenders look stupid in one-on-one situation or play a fantastic ball to Drogba or Lampard, ditto for Essien, who can also hit an absolute screamer at any time, and even the aforementioned center back pairing of Terry/Luiz have scored some goals this season (that's even more impressive considering Luiz only arrived in January from Benfica). It's much the same story for the likes of Mikel, and center backs Terry and Luiz, who are two of the best passing center halves around.
Meanwhile, United haven't had the same type of attacking success in that area. They've gotten four goals from Vidic, one from Scholes early in the year, and have seen goalless seasons from the rest of their central players currently in the squad. The lack of creativity in the center has shown in their worst moments (to be fair, there haven't been many of those), as those who have successfully defended United will force them into less dangerous positions out wide and pour most of their resources into marking the likes of Rooney and Javier Hernandez up top (which of course is easier said than done with the way those two have been scoring goals of late).
That all said, United have always flourished in these situations under Ferguson. They are a team obsessed with getting a result no matter what type of football they have to play, so they will certainly test Chelsea from the outset, as they'll be just fine with a 0-0 draw (they played similarly at the Emirates last weekend), especially considering a trip to lowly Blackburn and visit from relegation battlers Blackpool are the only fixtures that remain in their season.
If United are successful in slowing the pace of the match down, turning it into the type of match that suits them, they could get what they want. But Chelsea won the title last year playing that type of football when necessary. Meanwhile, The Blues hold the clear edge if they are ensconced in a faster paced match. And it's their ability to "react" to those two fundamental types of football that could position them to win the league on Sunday.
At the Bottom
It's been a tumultuous two seasons at Upton Park. And relegation this season would only add to West Ham's woes. The Hammers have a shockingly high wage bill for a team propping up the table with three matches left. Relegation for a team of that expense, and one plans to move into the Olympic Stadium next season on top of that, would be simply catastrophic.
It's always an interesting case when you have a host of veteran Premiership-quality players making up a roster that's battling the drop. Sometimes, it's not quite the advantage one might think, as many of the keg cogs surely know that they will move on to another Premiership club should the side go down. We've seen this type of thing happen in the past with sides like Middlesbrough and Newcastle. Surely Carlton Cole realizes that he won't be a part of the team should they drop down the Championship, ditto for Scott Parker (the race for his services should be especially interesting, as he has been a truly influential player this season). I'm not sure if West Ham are ready to go down just yet, but it's a very conceivable scenario at this point despite them being the most talented team amongst the current relegation strugglers.
Meanwhile, Wigan, Blackpool, Wolves, and Blackburn join the Hammers in the unenviable position of battling against the drop.
Kudos to Blackpool for giving us some great football this season, and Ian Holloway must be admired for sticking to the aggressive, attacking approach that got them promoted. But if they go down this season, it's proof that you can't make that style work unless you have the players. The Tangerines don't have that, giving up goals left and right whilst having too many bodies committed forward. Their attitude must be commended, but in the end, I think we are seeing that a free-flowing style simply doesn't work for a team at their talent level. Ugly football may not be our favorite style to watch, but it's usually going to be your the best route in terms of staying in the EPL.
Wigan have been languishing towards the bottom of the table since day one, when Blackpool thrashed them 4-0. The Latics do have one thing working for them in that they can withstand a bit of pressure thanks to the fantastic goalkeeping of loanee Ali Al-Habsi, and that's certainly a plus for a team that figures to be up against it thanks to a questionable back four.
Mick McCarthy's Wolves have fought tooth and nail to stay up for a second straight season. But they've sorely lacked a finisher in front of goal, which was evidenced by a string of tough results in the first half of the season when they actually played some pretty decent football . Fortunately for them, they play two of their three remaining fixtures at Molineux this season, where they have always looked far more dangerous over their current stay in the Premiership.
When Blackburn experienced a brief revival under Steve Keen and quickly rewarded him with an extension, I was quick to credit the manager/players for their sudden fine form, but I also warned against a quick fall from grace, as we've seen many a team flourish only momentarily under new direction. Unfortunately for them, that has been the case. The Roque Santa Cruz move hasn't worked out, and it's shown as they have been firing blanks for some time now. Still, they sit three points above the drop zone, so they won't have to do quite as much work to stay up as some.
